Cold hard unfeeling number

Let me say right up front I’m not a mathematically inclined person. But numbers do tell a story. They provide the kind of data that can be parsed out to figure which way is up. The main problem I have with the mathematically inclined is they get hung up on the numbers ignoring what the numbers say.

Example, if you web page has 4 unique visitors one month, and 6 unique visitors the next if you look at the numeric value it doesn’t seem like your web page is a smashing success. But the fact is you’ve had a 20% increase in traffic. If you can sustain a 20% growth rate you’ll be a success in no time.

In other word, don’t get hung up on what the numbers are, be focused on what the numbers mean.

I’ve play 135 shows (scheduled date) since I’ve started putting dates on my calendar (April 26,2008)

As a malleable figure, let’s say 10 new people were exposed to my music at ever show (a reasonable number, some shows are packed out and some have five people at them. 10 seems a reasonable number). This gives me a number of 1,350 opportunities to convert.

If you are wondering what a conversion opportunity is, in a nutshell it’s a marketing term. When you expose a product or idea to people that have one of two options. Ignore or react. When someone reacts they have been converted.

In the music industry they shoot for a 1% conversion rate. So if I played 135 show and got 1.35 conversions I would be market viable in the mainstream music world. Of course mainstream marketing shoot for a lager numeric sample then 135 at any given time. When you are dealing with a 1% conversion rate you need a HUGE quantity of conversion opportunities.

In Second Life it is very hard to determine the actual reaction quota. Group size could be figured as a valid figure. But you have to remember the limit to number of groups a resident can have (25 max) puts a secondary qualifier on that measurement. That consideration aside, my group has had at one point 100 members, giving me a conversion rate that far exceeds the 1% mark.

There are other indicators of growth. In the month of September I have bookings on every day. Out of a 30-day month, 12 days have double bookings. And keep in mind I’m writing this blog on the 6th of September so more booking may be added.

MP3 downloads are up as well. As of the 5th of the month I’ve experience a 200% growth over the whole of last month. This is due primarily to the greater availability of my MP3, but regardless of the reason, growth it growth.

What is the point of all this number wangling? Well simply to indicate there is quantifiable growth. There are ways to measure success and we don’t have to be contented with that warm fuzzy feeling after a show (let the record show I do enjoy that feeling, I just don’t need to be content with that alone).

With the measurement criteria in place, allow me to set the following goals.

200-group member by the end of the month.

A 500% increase in MP3 downloads

Double booked 20 days out of the month

I know just wanting these things won’t make them happen. But I do have a plan, and in my next blog entry I’ll give you the details.